REPORT ON WORK DONE BY THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE STRATEGY AT THE NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL (BI)
The Center for Climate Strategy (CS) was established on August 1st 2008 and consists of a small number of professionals organized around the Toyota Professorship in Climate Strategy.
1. An annual status report on Norwegian climate policy
(“Status for Norges oppfølging av Lavutslippsutvalgets 15 tiltak”)
Each year we summarize the status of Norwegian climate policy. The report is structured around the 15 recommendations of the Commission on Low GHG Emissions (“Lavutslippsutvalget”) in their October 2006 white book (“Et klimavennlig Norge” NOU 2006:18”), describing the extent of implementation achieved. The report is made public in the annual Low Emissions Conference (“Lavutslippskonferansen”) in Oslo each autumn.
Marit Sjøvaag Marino: Et klimavennligere Norge i 2008? SKS Report 1, October 13th 2008, 60 pages
Jørgen Randers: Karakterkort for norsk klimapolitikk SKS Report 2, October 16th 2008, 14 pages
Jørgen Randers and Knut Alfsen: A Climate Friendly Norway World Economics, spring 2007, 15 pages
Jørgen Randers: “En statusrapport for norsk klimapolitikk”, Lavutslippskonferansen, September 13th 2008
Jørgen Randers: Karakterkort for norsk klimapolitikk Klima, November 2008, 2 pages
2. An Energy and Climate Plan for Norway to 2020
(ENKL-planen – En energi og klima-plan for Norge til 2020)
In cooperation with the Energy Producers’ Association (“EBL”) and the Center for Technical and Industrial Research (“SINTEF Energi”) we produced a plan for how Norway can satisfy its diverse goals and commitments for a) climate gas emission redusctions, b) amount of renewable energy, and c) increased energy efficiency in 2020. The result was a simple plan consisting of 5 climate actions and 4 energy actions, with a total cost of around 1 % of the state budget.
SKS Report x, March 10 2009, 31 pages
Also available from the partners’ websites
Presentations: Jørgen Randers: ENKL-planen. Launch event, Grand Hotell Oslo, March 16th 2009
Jørgen Randers, Steinar Bysveen og Steinar Aam: ENKLest og billigst Op-ed article in VG March 13th 2009
3. Faster introduction of electric cars
(Arbeidsgruppe for introduksjon av elektriske biler)
In December 2008 the Norwegian Transport Minister established a working group to provide advice on how best to accelerate the introduction of electrically powered cars in Norwegian road transport during the next decade. In May 2009 the group presented a list of actions that could increase the fraction of chargeable cars to 10 % of the fleet by 2020, and help achieve the planned 25 % cut in climate gas emissions from road transport. CS had one representative in the working group.
Handlingsplan for introduksjon av elektrisitet i veitransport EBL/ECON, May 19th 2009, 51 pages
4. Money and soul
(Penger og sjel)
This book (by CS’s Per Espen Stoknes) discusses the various roles played by the concept of money in modern society. It is relevant to climate strategy, because it clarifies the possibilities and consequences of two new sorts of money – money valid for the use of fossil fuels and money for (ie rights to) emit climate gases. During 2008-09 the book was translated to English, and furthermore became the starting point of Per Espen’s Ph D thesis (see separate project below)
Per Espen Stoknes: Penger og sjel Oslo: Flux Forlag, 2007, 304 pages
Money and Soul, 2009, revised english translation
Per Espen Stoknes: Money and Soul – new currencies, Schumacher College, Devon, November 10th 2008
Penger og Sjel, Kommunesamarbeid i Vestfold, March, 18th 2009
Per Espen Stoknes: Nasjonalregnskap for livskvalitet, Stortingets Finanskomité, June, 4th 2009.
Nasjonalregnskap for livskvalitet, Ministry of Finance, June 11th 2009.
5. Abatement cost curve 2.0
(En tilbudskurve for klimagassreduksjoner, versjon 2)
McKinsey, the consultancy, published the first version of their famous cost curve for climate gas reductions in April 2008. Over the ensuing year, they upgraded this work in a substantial effort involving some 20 man-years. A handful of corporations and NGOs paid part of the bill and served as a steering group, and CS served as advisor to WWF International’s member of this steering group. The new abatement cost curve shows that one must use most available levers if global temperatures are to be kept below + 2 °C above the preindustrial level.
Pathways to a low carbon future Mckinsey Company, January 26th 2009, 25 pages
In addition there are hundreds of pages of supporting documentation.
Jerry Oppenheim and Anders Enkvist: McKinsey Journal, summer 2009, 10 pages
6. Economical Metaphors
This is the Ph D dissertation project of Per Espen Stoknes: a cross disciplinary study of the effect of economical metaphors on climate policy and people’s perception of climate cost and money. What are the theoretical and practical barriers to change?
Per Espen Stoknes
Økonomiske Metaforer - En flerfaglig undersøkelse av virkningen av økonomiske metaforer på klimapolitikk og oppfatninger om penger.
SKS Report z, August 1st 2009, 308 pages
Penger og Sjel - psykologisk påvirkning har økonomiske metaforer?
Lecture BI-Inst. For Governance + BI seminar on work in September 2008.
Op’ed in Dagbladet, September 19th 2008,
7. The One Degree War Plan
(“Plan for engrads-krigen”)
This project seeks to describe what crash action will be optimal when the rich world public suddenly one day realizes the seriousness of the climate challenge, and request immediate and strong action from its leaders and politicians. Assuming that the great awakening will happen in 2018, the plan describes how one still can keep global warming below plus 1 °C over the preindustrial level.
Jorgen Randers and Paul Gilding: The One Degree War Plan. SKS Report y, June 6th 2009, 19 pages
Presentations: Jorgen Randers: The One Degree War. Norges Forskningsråds Globaliseringskonferanse, Holmen, June 3rd 2009
Paul Gilding “……………”, Blog June 23rd 2009
8. Paradigm shift – from fossil growth to green sustainability
(Paradigmeskift – fra fossil vekst til gønn bærekraft)
Here we try to understand the fundamental change in outlook which appears to underly many of the transitions occurring, or about to occur, in technology and societal behaviour. This is the starting point for the Pd D dissertation of Bjørn Brunstad..
Bjørn Brunstad et al, ECON-report R-2009-033: “Smart grønn vekst: IKT som muliggjører”
Bjørn Brunstad: “Nytt samfunnsparadigme: IKT som muliggjører”, NHO, December 8th 2008
Bjørn Brunstad: “Climate and resource crises may signal the end of an era: how can we make sense of the coming paradigm shift?”, Bergen School of Architecture, January 23rd 2009
Bjørn Brunstad: “Entreprenørskap for et nytt samfunnsparadigme”, Polytechnic Society, Oslo, February 2nd 2009
Bjørn Brunstad: “Fossilparadigmet går mot slutten: hva er da god statlig styring for bærekraftig utvikling?”, Partner Forum, Norwegian School of Management, May 27th 2009
Bjørn Brunstad: ”Smart grønn vekst”, Abelia, June 3rd 2009
Bjørn Burnstad: “Å planlegge for store samfunnsomveltninger”, Plan, nr.5 2008, 8 pages
Bjørn Brunstad, Sigrun Aasland og Tarje Bjørgum: “Fra fossil til smart grønn vekst”, Op-ed, economy section Aftenposten national newspaper, June 2nd 2009.
9. Indicators for Sustainable Development
(Indikatorer for bærekraftig utvikling)
We are partners in a project run by Statistics Norway (SSB) seeking to develop better indicators for sustainable development. Special emphasis is on unmeasurable aspects requiring expert judgement, and on tools to better anticipate future developments.
Jørgen Randers og Bjart Holstmark
A proposal for burden sharing in a Post-2012 climate agreement
Climate Policy Letters, Fall 2009, 4 pages
Jørgen Randers and Chris Tuppen
How much is enough? Climate emissions per unit of value added
SKS Report w, January 5th 2009, 25 pages
10. Selfreinforcing feedback in the climate system
(Selvforsterkende feedback i klima systemet)
Here we try to develop a system dynamics model of some of the best known selfreinforcing feedback loops in the global climate-ocean-land-biosphere system. The goal is to achieve a very rough estimate of when human emissions may trigger uncontrollable temperature rise.
11. The Climate Policies of Norway’s Political Parties 2005-09
(Partienes klimapolitikk 2005-09)
In this project we describe the parties’ programmatic ambitions before the 2005 election, how they fared during the parliamentary session, and how this experience led to modifications in the parties’ programmes for the coming election in 2009. We focus on 5 topics which caused much conflict:: carbon capture and storage, biofuels, emissions quotas and quota trading, new renewable energy and
Marit Sjøvaag Marino and Jørgen Randers
SKS rapport 6, August 6th 2009, 50 pages
12. Bjørn Brunstads Ph D Dissertation
(Bjørn Brunstads doktorgrad)
Bjørn is planning to analyze the consequences for the transport sector of the approaching transition from fossil growth to green sustainability. The result would help describe a sustainable transport system for Norway.
PhD proposal draft per August 2009
“Electrification of transport”
Statkraft, December 2008
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, January 7th 2009
CS staff has produced and delivered the following educational programmes at university level
Norwegian School of Management
Master of Management program in Scenarios, Foresight and Strategy
(Five modules of four days, post experience level)
Norwegian School of Management
Master of Management program in Corporate Responsibility
(One three day module on climate issues, post experience level)
Cambridge University Program on Sustainability Leadership
(Parts of four day program for senior corporate management in international corporations)
Bergen School of Architecture
(one 2-day module on foresight)
CS staff has assisted the following external organizations
Telenor AS - Climate strategy and staff engagement
Agder Energi AS - Energy supply strategy
Statkraft AS - Strategy in Europe, electric transport strategy
Oljedirektoratet - Energy white book for Norway – scenarios
Kings Bay AS - Symposium on global climate politics
Klimakur 2020 - Scenarios for Norway’s climate response
Norw. Research Council – Scenarios for the future of food and climate.
Norwegian School of Management BI
- Energy game, various presentations
Abelia - Climate strategy towards smart green growth